Flowering phenology

Ecosystem change
Machine learning
Bayesian model
Circular statistics
Meteorology data
Herbarium data
Field phenology observation
Phylogenetic data
Working project

Flowering sensitivity

We investigated the relationship between temperature changes and flowering time in wind-pollinated trees using herbarium records, applying a phylogenetic mixed-effects model.

Herbarium image and the infered sensitivity with phylogenetic information.

Read more in this study:
Liu, Y., Song, Y. & Zhu, K. Plasticity, not adaptation, dominates wind-pollinated trees’ flower-ing time sensitivity to temperature ESA 2025 Annual Meeting (Baltimore, USA). Aug. 2025. Poster

Liu, Y., Song, Y., Weaver, W., Shedden, K., Chen, Y., Smith, S. A. & Zhu, K. Dominance of plasticity in wind-pollinated trees’ flowering time response to temperature. bioRxiv preprint. https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.08.26.672405 (2025).

Leaf-flower sequence

We analyzed paired, individual-level data on flowering and leaf-out times to establish their relationship using circular statistics and leveraged satellite-derived green-up dates to estimate flowering time.

Linear-circular regression of paired, individual-level leaf and flower data.

Flower synchrony

Flowering synchrony, the extent to which individuals within a population flower at the same time, is a key driver of pollination efficiency and reproductive success in wind-pollinated trees. Here we are trying to use site-level flowering time data from National Phenology Network (NPN).

Patterns of flowering time synchrony in NPN.